Reading Trajectories in Elementary Grades: A Longitudinal Analysis
Research shows that children's reading proficiency levels in the early grades positively correlate with students' future academic achievement..
- Pub. date: May 15, 2022
- Pages: 259-273
- 416 Downloads
- 773 Views
- 0 Citations
Research shows that children's reading proficiency levels in the early grades positively correlate with students' future academic achievement. This study provides the first-ever analysis of reading achievement trajectories for a cohort of students in grades 3 to 5 in 2014–17 in Hawaii schools. Hawaii serves a diverse student population whose characteristics differ in ways often overlooked by standard US racial and ethnic classifications. Our analysis shows that Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander students not only start at a lower reading proficiency than their peers in Grade 3, but the achievement gap widens as they move from Grade 3 to Grade 5. Moreover, we find a strong association between students' third-grade performance and reading achievement growth rate above and beyond all other factors in our longitudinal model. The difference in performance patterns between student subgroups across the elementary grades can serve as an accurate baseline for yearly monitoring. In light of our findings, we discuss implications for policy and practice.
Keywords: Elementary grades, growth modeling, reading trajectories, sociodemographic factors.
References
Aarnoutse, C., & van Leeuwe, J. (2000). Development of poor and better readers during the elementary school. Educational Research and Evaluation, 6(3), 251-278, https://doi.org/10.1076/1380-3611(200009)6:3;1-A;FT251
Adams, M. J. (1994). Beginning to read: Thinking and learning about print. MIT Press.
Azevedo, J. P., Rogers, F. H., Ahlgren, S. E., Cloutier, M. H., Chakroun, B., Changl, G. C., Mizunoya, S., Reuge, J. N., Brossard, M., & Lynn, J. (2021). The state of the global education crisis: A path to recovery (Vol. 2): Executive summary (English). World Bank Group. https://bit.ly/3vQgPCq
Balfanz, R., Herzog, L., & Mac Iver, D. J. (2007). Preventing student disengagement and keeping students on the graduation path in urban middle-grades schools: Early identification and effective interventions. Educational Psychologist, 42(4), 223-235. https://doi.org/10.1080/00461520701621079
Bast, J., & Reitsma, P. (1998). Analyzing the development of individual differences in terms of Matthew effects in reading: Results from a Dutch longitudinal study. Developmental Psychology, 34(6), 1373. https://doi.org/10.1037/0012-1649.34.6.1373
Bates, D., Mächler, M., Bolker, B., & Walker, S. (2015). Fitting linear mixed-effects models using lme4. Journal of Statistical Software, 67(1), 1–48. https://doi.org/10.18637/jss.v067.i01
Benner, A. D. (2011). The transition to high school: Current knowledge, future directions. Educational Psychology Review, 23(29). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10648-011-9152-0
Bodovski, K., & Farkas, G. (2007). Mathematics growth in early elementary school: The roles of beginning knowledge, student engagement, and instruction. The Elementary School Journal, 108(2), 115-130. https://doi.org/10.1086/525550
Camera, L. (2016, January 16). Achievement gap between white and black students still gaping. US News & World Report. https://bit.ly/3LmX7Vj
Chatterji, M. (2006). Reading achievement gaps, correlates, and moderators of early reading achievement: Evidence from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study (ECLS) kindergarten to first grade sample. Journal of Educational Psychology, 98(3), 489–507. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-0663.98.3.489
Coleman, J. S. (1966). Equality of educational opportunity. National Center for Education Statistics. https://bit.ly/3OK2no4
Coyne, M. D., Kame'enui, E. J., Simmons, D. C., & Harn, B. A. (2004). Beginning reading intervention as inoculation or insulin: First-grade reading performance of strong responders to kindergarten intervention. Journal of Learning Disabilities, 37(2), 90-104. https://doi.org/10.1177/00222194040370020101
Enders, C. K., Du, H., & Keller, B. T. (2018). Substantive model-compatible imputation for multilevel regression models with random coefficients, interaction effects, and other non-linear terms. Psychological Methods.
Entwisle, D. R., & Alexander, K. L. (1992). Summer setback: Race, poverty, school composition, and mathematics achievement in the first two years of school. American Sociological Review, 57(1), 72-84. https://doi.org/10.2307/2096145
Entwisle, D. R., Alexander, K. L., & Olson, L. S. (1997). Children, schools, and inequality. Westview.
Every Student Succeeds Act, 20 USC § 6301 (2015). https://bit.ly/3vKO0aI
Fiester, L. (2010). Early warning: Why reading by the end of third grade matters. Kids Count special report. Annie E. Casey Foundation. https://bit.ly/3ES1YeO
Fiester, L. (2013). Early warning confirmed: A research update on third-grade reading. The Annie E. Casey Foundation. https://bit.ly/3MzbBSj
Foorman, B., Beyler, N., Borradaile, K., Coyne, M., Denton, C. A., Dimino, J., Furgeson, J., Hayes, L., Henke, J., Justice, L., Keating, B., Lewis, W., Sattar, S., Streke, A., Wagner, R., & Wissel, S. (2016). Foundational skills to support reading for understanding in kindergarten through 3rd Grade (NCEE 2016-4008). National Center for Education Evaluation and Regional Assistance (NCEE), Institute of Education Sciences. https://bit.ly/3EWJom4
Foster, W. A., & Miller, M. (2007). Development of the literacy achievement gap: A longitudinal study of kindergarten through third grade. Language, Speech, and Hearing Services in Schools, 38(3), 173–181. https://doi.org/10.1044/0161-1461(2007/018)
Francis, D. J., Shaywitz, S. E., Stuebing, K. K., Shaywitz, B. A., & Fletcher, J. M. (1996). Developmental lag versus deficit models of reading disability: A longitudinal, individual growth curves analysis. Journal of Educational Psychology, 88(1), 3-17. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-0663.88.1.3
Fuchs, L. S., Fuchs, D., & Compton, D. L. (2004). Monitoring early reading development in first Grade: Word identification fluency versus nonsense word fluency. Exceptional Children, 71(1), 7-21. https://doi.org/10.1177/001440290407100101
Gelfand, A. E. (2000). Gibbs sampling. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 95(452), 1300-1304. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.2000.10474335
Gersten, R., Compton, D., Connor, C. M., Dimino, J., Santoro, L., Linan-Thompson, S., & Tilly, W. D. (2008). Assisting students struggling with reading: Response to Intervention and multi-tier intervention for reading in the primary grades. A practice guide (NCEE 2009-4045). National Center for Education Evaluation and Regional Assistance, Institute of Education Sciences, US Department of Education. https://bit.ly/3vKAcgl
Grace, D. J., & Serna, A. K. (2012). Early childhood education and care for Native Hawaiian children in Hawai'i: A brief history. Early Child Development and Care, 183(2), 308-320. https://doi.org/10.1080/03004430.2012.673487
Hein, V., Smerdon, B., & Sambolt, M. (2013). Predictors of postsecondary success. College & Career Readiness & Success Center at American Institutes for Research. https://eric.ed.gov/?id=ED555671
Hemphill, F. C., & Vanneman, A. (2011). Achievement gaps: How Hispanic and White students in public schools perform in mathematics and reading on the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NCES 2011-459). National Center for Education Statistics, Institute of Education Sciences, US Department of Education. https://bit.ly/3vkMn4i
Hernandez, D. J. (2011). How third-grade reading skills and poverty influence high school graduation. Annie E. Casey Foundation.
Johnson, R. S. (2002). Using data to close the achievement gap: How to measure equity in our schools. Corwin Press.
Kamil, M. L., Borman, G. D., Dole, J., Kral, C. C., Salinger, T., & Torgesen, J. (2008). Improving adolescent literacy: Effective classroom and intervention practices: A Practice Guide (NCEE #2008-4027). National Center for Education Evaluation and Regional Assistance, Institute of Education Sciences, US Department of Education. https://bit.ly/3OAAtep
Kempe, C., Eriksson‐Gustavsson, A. L., & Samuelsson, S. (2011). Are there any Matthew effects in literacy and cognitive development? Scandinavian Journal of Educational Research, 55(2), 181-196. https://doi.org/10.1080/00313831.2011.554699
Kieffer, M. J., & Marinell, W. H. (2012). Navigating the middle grades: Evidence from New York City. The Research Alliance for New York City Schools.
Kim, Y.-S., Petscher, Y., Schatschneider, C., & Foorman, B. (2010). Does growth rate in oral reading fluency matter in predicting reading comprehension achievement? Journal of Educational Psychology, 102(3), 652–667. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0019643
Kuhfeld, M., Ruzek, E., Lewis, K., Soland, J., Johnson, A., Tarasawa, B., & Dworkin, L. (2021). Understanding the initial educational impacts of COVID-19 on communities of color. NWEA. https://bit.ly/3Kqwmy2
Kwakye, I., & Kibort-Corcker, E. (2021). Facing learning disruption: Examining the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on K-12 students. Washington Student Achievement Council. https://eric.ed.gov/?id=ED613296
Lai, M. K., Wilson, A., McNaughton, S., & Hsiao, S. (2014). Improving achievement in secondary schools: Impact of a literacy project on reading comprehension and secondary school qualifications. Reading Research Quarterly, 49(3), 305-334. https://doi.org/10.1002/rrq.73
Leppänen, U., Niemi, P., Aunola, K., & Nurmi, J. E. (2004). Development of reading skills among preschool and primary school pupils. Reading Research Quarterly, 39(1), 72-93. https://doi.org/10.1598/RRQ.39.1.5
Lerkkanen, M. K., Rasku-Puttonen, H., Aunola, K., & Nurmi, J. E. (2004). Reading performance and its developmental trajectories during the first and the second grade. Learning and Instruction, 14(2), 111-130. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.learninstruc.2004.01.006
Lesaux, N. K., Rupp, A. A., & Siegel, L. S. (2007). Growth in reading skills of children from diverse linguistic backgrounds: Findings from a 5-year longitudinal study. Journal of Educational Psychology, 99(4), 821–834. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-0663.99.4.821
Lesnick, J., Gorge, R. M., Smithgall, C., & Gwynne, J. (2010). Reading on grade level in third grade: How is it related to high school performance and college enrollment? A longitudinal analysis of third-grade students in Chicago in 1996-97 and their educational outcomes. A report to the Annie E. Casey Foundation. Chapin Hall at the University of Chicago. https://eric.ed.gov/?id=ED517805
Lonigan, C. J., & Shanahan, T. (2009). Developing early literacy: Report of the National Early Literacy Panel. Executive summary. A scientific synthesis of early literacy development and implications for intervention. National Institute for Literacy. https://bit.ly/3LrAkaY
Lubienski, S., & Crane, C. C. (2010). Beyond free lunch: Which family background measures matter? Education Policy Analysis Archives, 18(11), 1-43. https://doi.org/10.14507/epaa.v18n11.2010
Mac Iver, M. A. (2010). Gradual disengagement: A portrait of the 2008-09 dropouts in the Baltimore City Schools (Research report). Baltimore Education Research Consortium. https://bit.ly/3rXpG4f
Mastropieri, M. A., Leinart, A., & Scruggs, T. E. (1999). Strategies to increase reading fluency. Intervention in school and clinic, 34(5), 278-283. https://doi.org/10.1177/105345129903400504
McCoach, D. B., O'Connell, A. A., Reis, S. M., & Levitt, H. A. (2006). Growing readers: A hierarchical linear model of children's reading growth during the first 2 years of school. Journal of educational psychology, 98(1), 14-28. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-0663.98.1.14
McNamara, J. K., Scissons, M., & Gutknecth, N. (2011). A longitudinal study of kindergarten children at risk for reading disabilities: The poor really are getting poorer. Journal of learning disabilities, 44(5), 421-430. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022219411410040
Morgan, P. L., Farkas, G., & Hibel, J. (2008). Matthew effects for whom? Learning Disability Quarterly, 31(4), 187-198. https://doi.org/10.2307/25474651
Morgan, P. L., Farkas, G., & Wu, Q. (2011). Kindergarten children's growth trajectories in reading and mathematics: Who falls increasingly behind? Journal of Learning Disabilities, 44(5), 472-488. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022219411414010
National Reading Panel. (2000). Teaching children to read: An evidence-based assessment of the scientific research literature on reading and its implications for reading instruction. Author. https://bit.ly/37K2oYO
Office of Elementary & Secondary Education. (n.d.). Elementary and secondary school emergency relief fund. https://bit.ly/3ETQWG2
Onatsu-Arvilommi, T., & Nurmi, J. E. (2000). The role of task-avoidant and task-focused behaviors in the development of reading and mathematical skills during the first school year: A cross-lagged longitudinal study. Journal of educational psychology, 92(3), 478-491. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-0663.92.3.478
Parrila, R., Aunola, K., Leskinen, E., Nurmi, J. E., & Kirby, J. R. (2005). Development of individual differences in reading: Results from longitudinal studies in English and Finnish. Journal of Educational Psychology, 97(3), 299-319. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-0663.97.3.299
Patz, R. J. (2007). Vertical scaling in standards-based educational assessment and accountability systems. Council of Chief State School Officers.
Pfost, M., Hattie, J., Dörfler, T., & Artelt, C. (2014). Individual differences in reading development: A review of 25 years of empirical research on Matthew effects in reading. Review of Educational Research, 84(2), 203-244. https://doi.org/10.3102/0034654313509492
Phillips, L. M., Norris, S. P., Osmond, W. C., & Maynard, A. M. (2002). Relative reading achievement: A longitudinal study of 187 children from first through sixth grades. Journal of Educational Psychology, 94(1), 3-13. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-0663.94.1.3
Quintana, R., & Correnti, R. (2020). The concept of academic mobility: Normative and methodological considerations. American Education Research Journal, 57(4), 1625–1664. https://doi.org/10.3102/0002831219876935
R Core Team. (2017). R: A language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing. https://www.R-project.org/
Rigney, D. (2010). The Matthew effect: How advantage begets further advantage. Columbia University Press.
Rodriguez, J. L., Jones, E. B., Pang, V. O., & Park, C. D. (2004). Promoting academic achievement and identity development among diverse high school students. High School Journal, 87(3), 44-53. https://doi.org/10.1353/hsj.2004.0002
Rourke, B. P. (1976). Reading retardation in children: developmental lag or deficit? In R. M. Knights & D. J. Bakker (Eds.), The neuropsychology of learning disorders: theoretical approaches (pp. 125-137). University Park Press.
Salaschek, M., Zeuch, N., & Souvignier, E. (2014). Mathematics growth trajectories in first grade: Cumulative vs. compensatory patterns and the role of number sense. Learning and Individual Differences, 35, 103-112. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lindif.2014.06.009
Shanahan, T., Callison, K., Carriere, C., Duke, N. K., Pearson, P. D., Schatschneider, C., & Torgesen, J. (2010). Improving reading comprehension in kindergarten through 3rd Grade: A practice guide (NCEE 2010-4038). National Center for Education Evaluation and Regional Assistance, Institute of Education Sciences, US Department of Education. https://bit.ly/3LE28cB
Shanley, L. (2016). Evaluating longitudinal mathematics achievement growth: Modeling and measurement considerations for assessing academic progress. Educational Researcher, 45(6), 347-357. https://doi.org/10.3102/0013189X16662461
Shin, T., Davison, M. L., Long, J. D., Chan, C. K., & Heistad, D. (2013). Exploring gains in reading and mathematics achievement among regular and exceptional students using growth curve modeling. Learning and Individual Differences, 23, 92-100. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lindif.2012.10.002
Singer, J. D., & Willett, J. B. (2003). Applied longitudinal data analysis: Modeling change and event occurrence. Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195152968.001.0001
Singh, J. M. (2011). Long-term effects of Native Hawaiian students' early academic achievement under the No Child Left Behind legislation: A multilevel cohort analysis (Publication No. 3475730) [Doctoral dissertation, University of Hawai'i at Manoa]. ProQuest Dissertations and Theses Global.
Singh, M., Bel Hadj Amor, H., & Zhang, S. (2014). Native Hawaiian students' achievement gap in reading: A longitudinal study from Hawai'i. Education Northwest.
Slavin, R. E., Lake, C., Chambers, B., Cheung, A., & Davis, S. (2009). Effective beginning reading programs: A best-evidence synthesis. Center for Data-Driven Reform in Education.
Stanovich, K. E. (2009). Matthew effects in reading: Some consequences of individual differences in the acquisition of literacy. Journal of education, 189(1-2), 23-55. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022057409189001-204
The Nation's Report Card. (2019). Results from the 2019 mathematics and reading assessments. Author. https://bit.ly/3Ls7Y0y
Tomlinson, C. A. (2017). How to differentiate instruction in academically diverse classrooms (3rd ed.). ASCD.
Vanneman, A., Hamilton, L., Baldwin Anderson, J., & Rahman, T. (2009). Achievement gaps: How black and white students in public schools perform in mathematics and reading on the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NCES 2009-455). National Center for Education Statistics, Institute of Education Sciences, US Department of Education. https://bit.ly/3y5wDUu
Walberg, H. J., & Tsai, S. L. (1983). Matthew effects in education. American Educational Research Journal, 20(3), 359-373. https://doi.org/10.3102/00028312020003359
Williamson, G. L., Appelbaum, M., & Epanchin, A. (1991). Longitudinal analyses of academic achievement. Journal of Educational Measurement, 28(1), 61-76. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1745-3984.1991.tb00344.x
Wurdeman-Thurston, K., & Kaomea, J. (2015). Fostering culturally relevant literacy instruction: Lessons from a Native Hawaiian classroom. Language Arts, 92(6), 424-435. https://www.jstor.org/stable/24577534
Yoshikawa, H., Weiland, C., Brooks-Gunn, J., Burchinal, M. R., Espinosa, L. M., Gormley, W. T., Ludwig, J., Magnuson, K. A., Phillips, D., & Zaslow, M. J. (2013). Investing in our future: The evidence base on preschool education. Society for Research on Child Development and Foundation for Child Development. https://bit.ly/3vRfKdy